The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator: development and validation of a tool for identifying African surgical patients at risk of severe postoperative complications
Publication Date
2018-12-01Author
H-L Kluyts, Y Le Manach, DM Munlemvo, F Madzimbamuto, A Basenero, Y Coulibaly, S Rakotoarison, V Gobin, AL Samateh, MS Chaibou, AO Omigbodun, SD Amanor-Boadu, J Tumukunde, TE Madiba, RM Pearse, BM Biccard, Hippolyte Abadagan, N Abbas, A Ibrahim Abdelatif, Traoré Abdoulaye, A Abd-rouf, A Abduljalil, A Abdulrahman, S Abdurazig, A Abokris, W Abozaid, SOA Abugassa, F Abuhdema, SA Abujanah, R Abusamra, A Abushnaf, SA Abusnina, TS Abuzalout, HM Ackermann, YB Adamu, A Addanfour, DM Adeleke, TA Adigun, AO Adisa, Sèhivè Valéry Adjignon, NA Adu-Aryee, BB Afolabi, AFX Agaba, PKA Agaba, K Aghadi, H Agilla, B Ahmed, El-Z Ahmed, Al-J Ahmed, M Ahmed, Rene Ahossi, SA Aji, S Akanyun, I Akhideno, M Akhter, OA Akinyemi, M Akkari, Joseph Akodjenou, AL AL Samateh, ES al Shams, OT Alagbe-Briggs, EA Alakkari, RB Alalem, M Alashhab, OI Alatise, A Alatresh, MSI Alayeb Alayeb, BA Albakosh, F Albert, ANJD Alberts, AD Aldarrat, A Alfari, A Alfetore, M Algbali, A Algddar, HA Algedar, IA Alghafoud, A Alghazali, M Alhajj, A Alhendery Alhendery, FFH Alhoty, A Ali, YA Ali, Beye Seïdina Alioune, MA Alkassem, MA Alkchr, TS Alkesa, A Alkilani, F Alkobty Alkobty, Thomas Allaye, SBM Alleesaib, A Alli, K Allopi, NL Allorto, A Almajbery, R Almesmary, SHA Almisslati, F Almoraid, H Alobeidi, MA Alomami, Christella S Alphonsus, OA Alqawi, AA Alraheem, SA Alsabri, A Alsayed, B Alsellabi, M Al-Serksi, MSA Alshareef, AA Altagazi, JS Aluvale, HW Alwahedi, EA Alzahra, MA Alzarouk, K Al-Zubaidy, M Amadou, Maiga Amadou, Simbo D Amanor-Boadu, Al-A Amer, BT Amisi, MA Amuthenu, TWA Anabah, Felix Anani, PGR Anderson, AGB Andriamampionona, L Andrianina, A Anele, R Angelin, N Anjar, O Antùnez, Akwasi Antwi-Kusi, LJC Anyanwu, AA Aribi, OA Arowolo, O Arrey, Daniel Zemenfes Ashebir, SB Assefa, Guy Assoum, V Athanse, JS Athombo, M Atiku, E Atito-Narh, Anatole Atomabe, A Attia, M Aungraheeta, DMA Aurélia, OO Ayandipo, AET Ayebale, HMZ Azzaidey, NB Babajee, HB Badi
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Background
The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications.
Methods
ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid …