Perceptions Versus Realities on Climate Change in the Sugarcane Growing areas of Chemelil and Muhoroni

Abstract

Perception on climate change is a prerequisite for adaptation. A number of studies have been conducted to investigate perceptions on climate change. However, they rarely incorporate analysis of climatic data to corroborate the findings. This study is a two- pronged attempt to determineperceptions on climate change and to establish if they match the reality. Face to face interviewshave been conducted on individuals at household levels in 15villages in Chemelil and Muhoroni Sugarcane growing area of Kisumu County involving 405 adult residents to elicit perceptions.Climatic data consisting mainly of daily rainfall data for 23 years from Muhoroni SugarCompany's central weather station has been analyzed to provide evidence on reality on the same. Using InStat, a statistical package specially designed for analysis of climatic data.and another, GenStat; descriptive statistics, inferential analysis of climatic events for trends and Markovchain modelling of rainfall data have been utilized Chi-square tests for independence, t- . test for equality of two means and regression analysis have been employed. The feelings of the respondents tended to be influenced more by their perceived demands for rainfall. The overall perception among gender irrespective of level of education was that there is climate change. However, exploration and analysis of long term daily rainfall data do not reveal statistical evidenceof the same. Involving statistical analysis of climatic data would validate and reinforce evidence based on perception and guide in more informed policy formulation and decision makingon climate change related issues.