Modelling of lactation curves of dairy cows based on monthly test day milk yield records under inconsistent milk recording scenarios

Abstract

The objective of this study was to describe the lactation curve of dairy cattle in Kenya using a suitable lactation function in order to facilitate inclusion of partial lactations in national dairy cattle evaluation and to assess the effect of data characteristics on lactation curve parameters. Six functions were fitted to test day (TD) milk yield records from six parities of Ayrshire, Guernsey, Holstein Friesian, Jersey and Sahiwal cattle. Five datasets: DS-1 (12-TD dataset with randomly missing records), DS-2 (10-TD dataset without missing records), DS-3 (10-TD dataset with randomly missing records), DS-4 (7-TD dataset, with only TD 4 to 10 records) and DS-5 (7-TD dataset, with TD 1 to 4, 6, 8 and 10 records) depicting various recording circumstances were derived to assess the effects of data characteristics on lactation curves and to assess the feasibility of reducing the number of TD samples per lactation. The fit of the functions was evaluated using adjusted R2 and their predictive abilities were compared using mean square prediction error, percentage of squared bias and the correlation between the predicted and actual milk yield. These criteria plus the changes in the parameters of curve functions and their associated standard errors were used in determining the effects of data characteristics on lactation curves. The mechanistic functions of Dijkstra (DIJ) and Pollott (APOL), and the incomplete gamma function of Wood (WD) had the highest adjusted R2. 0.75. The APOL function was eliminated due to convergence failures when analysis of individual lactations within breeds was carried out. Both DIJ and WD had good predictive ability, although DIJ performed …