Match Analysis of HIV/AIDS Model With Reference to Kenya

Abstract

Epidemiology models are used to combine complex data from various sources in order to study equally complex outcomes. The first simple HIV/AIDS epidemic model was by Anderson in 1986. Since then a lot has been done in terms ofmathematical models to help understand the trends in the spread of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Researchers over the years have concentrated on certain aspects of the disease at a time depending on the area of interest of the researcher sometimes with conflicting results partly because only some aspects ofthe disease were considered. No single model incorporating social behaviour, treatment, vaccination, stages of infection age structures and vertical transmission has been developed. In this study a comprehensive deterministic HIV/AIDS transmission model incorporating all the above has been formulated using differential equa tions. Different parameter values have been simulated numerically and the spread of the disease monitored against time to determine their ef fects on the HIV/AIDS spread using the Wolfram Research Mathematica Software. This study harmonizes the existing models into a single model to study various aspects of the HIV/AIDS Pandemic.