Effects of Floods on Economic Value of Crops, Livestock Production and Land Among Communities of Nyando and Budalangi in The Lake Victoria Basin, Kenya

Abstract

Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as floods are likely to increase the vulnerability of poor households and communities in developing countries. The Lake Victoria basin of Kenya, specifically Budalangi and Nyando sub-counties are characterized by frequent floods which often affect economic activities of communities residing in the region thus increasing their vulnerability to subsequent flood events. However, the combined effect of floods on economic value of crops, livestock and land are little understood. This hampers appropriate adaptation strategies, resilience, climate smart agriculture and other related intervention measures by the locals. This study sought to model the relationship between economic value of crops, livestock and land as influenced by floods using the Ricardian Model. Specific objectives were to estimate the effects of floods on crop yield among households living within Nyando and Budalangi, Kenya; to model the economic effects of floods on animal production among households living within Nyando and Budalangi, Kenya and to model the effects of floods on the economic value of land among households living within Nyando and Budalangi, Kenya. Across-sectional research design was adopted for this study. Data was collected from 424 randomly selected households from the two flood prone regions using questionnaires. The findings showed that most (59.3%) respondents were male, with 51.9% of household members aged between 26-55 years. Most (91.4%) respondents inherited the land on which they lived, while crop farming was the main (67.7%) source of livelihood, though most (83.7%) households did not generate enough income for their use. Over half (59.9%) the respondent were agro-pastoralists, while 39.2% practiced agriculture. All respondents grew food crops on their farms, with majority (41%) growing maize. However, the food harvested in the previous season lasted less than 3 months for most (38.5%) households. Livestock (especially cattle) keeping was practiced by most (87.1 %) households, predominantly for food. Floods affected 57.7% of the respondents, with livestock rearing being affected according to 95.5% of the respondents. Upt085.2% reported losing some livestock over the last 20 years. The Ricardian Model explained 38.6% of crops and livestock variations with respect to floods. The effect of floods was higher in Nyando than Budalangi. Upon simulating floods effects on crops and animal losses, the negative impacts on crops tended to be of a higher magnitude than on animals. A tendency was observed for increased floods to be beneficial to rice and potatoes as opposed to other crops. The Ricardian model further indicated that among the households surveyed, production was more important in their decision-making than the flood event. Decreased flood intensity generated a moderately positive effect on the land value, with a simulated scenario showing a decrease in floods with an increase in land value of6% the usual price. Findings from this study will improve scientific knowledge of the impact of floods on specific livelihood sources of the LVB inhabitants and therefore inform specific strategies of adaptation and mitigation.