| dc.description.abstract | ABSTRACT
Rainfall variability is a major problem that affects subsistence crop production all over
the world. African countries are most affected, because they are very much dependent on
rain fed subsistence agriculture for their livelihood. Rainfall in Kahangara Division
varies from time to time, of which between the years 2008 and 2010 experienced the
decline of rainfall. This variability in rainfall may have had an impact on subsistence
crop production. However, no documented study has so far shown the relationship.
Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the effects of rainfall variability on
subsistence crop production. The specific objectives of this study were to: assess the
historical rainfall variability at annual, seasonal and monthly scales over the period
between 1990 and 2010 in Kahangara Division; and to establish the effects of rainfall
variability on subsistence crop production in Kahangara Division. Cross-sectional survey
research design was used. The study targeted 4711 households of subsistence farmers
and simple random sampling was used to select a sample size of 355 households. In
addition, purposive sampling was used to obtain four agricultural extension officers and
one meteorologist as key informants. Primary data was collected through questionnaires,
interviews, direct observation and photography. Documentary review was used to collect
secondary data from Magu weather stations and Kahangara Division Agricultural Office.
Quantitative data was analyzed using descriptive statistics such as frequency distribution,
percentages, means, standard deviations, coefficient of variation, inter-annual variability
and correlation analysis. These data was processed using Statistical Package for Social
Science (SPSS) and Instat software. Qualitative data was analyzed by creating themes
and patterns then evaluating the usefulness of information in answering research
questions. The empirical analysis of rainfall suggests there are high variabilities of
annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall amounts over the last 21 years. The correlation
between rainfall variability and sweet potatoes yields (r = 0.799, p< 0.01) and cassava
yields (r = 0.586 p< 0.01) are statistically significant at 0.01, and sorghum yields (r =
0.426 p< 0.05) is statistically significant at 0.05 significant level. Therefore, it was
concluded that there is high annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall variability .in
Kahangara Division and it affects sweet potatoes, cassava and sorghum production. This
study recommends that there should be an investment on future water supply to
supplement rainfall through rain water harvest. Moreover, farmers are advised to grow
different crop varieties and they should change the planting dates. Further, the
meteorology department should disseminate information on rainfall forecast to farmers so
as to make them aware of the effects of rainfall variability which may be helpful to
farmers on decision making. | en_US |
