An Ex-Ante Economic Impact Assessment for Adoption of Varieties in Uganda and Kenya

Abstract

Cassava is a major staple in Sub-Sahara Africa, securing several households against food poverty and hunger. However like other tropical crops, cassava is susceptible to diseases, thus threatening millions with food insecurity and severe hunger. Most notable diseases have been cassava brown streak virus (CBSD) and cassava mosaic disease (CMD) that in some instances cause up to 100% harvest losses. Fortunately, recent research efforts have used genetic modifications, and engineered Transgenic Cassava Varieties (TCVs) that are resistant to CBSD and CMD. But because these are recent technologies, their economic value has not yet been estimated to inform policy and other stakeholders. Using data from Kenya and Uganda, we estimate the ex-ante economic impact of TCVs. Adoption of CBSD–resistant TCVs, would bear financial benefits of US$ 436 million in Kenya and US$ 790 million in Uganda over 35 years. This would substantially enhance households’ incomes and food security.