Discriminant analysis of factors that have led to slow decline of HIV/aids prevalence: case study of Maseno

Abstract

HIV/AIDS epidemic has endangered the development of countries in this new century, presenting one of the greatest challenges of this generation and threatening human development. To accomplish an efficient response requires many researches to find long term solutions. Though its prevalence has declined in the past years, it is still very high in particular regions due to various factors. This research analysed major factors associated with HIV/AIDS prevalence in Maseno Community. If no serious measures are taken to curb this epidemic, Maseno Community will lag behind economically. The study had six objectives namely; to analyse TB prevalence in relation to HIV/AIDS status, to determine if gender was associated with HIV/AIDS prevalence, to identify which age-group is highly HIV/AIDS infected, to test between the couples and single people, which group was at high risk of HIV infection, to test which group was the most HIV infected between the students, staff and the community residents and finally to examine which key independent variable predicted HIV/AIDS status. Secondary data from Maseno AIDS Control Unit (ACU) and Maseno ACK Hospital were used. The population of study entailed all clients who visited the ACU and hospital for testing. The study utilized stratified sampling across HIV status. Cronbach’s alpha was used to test reliability of the result. Binary logistic regression analysis was also used to determine the association between factors mentioned above and HIV/AIDS. Odds ratio from the logistic regression analyses gave estimates of the risks of HIV/AIDS that was associated with each of these factors. Results from this study showed that TB, marital status, ‘origin’ (if one was a student, staff or Maseno community resident) and age had a significant association with HIV/AIDS. Odds ratio from logit model showed that, TB positive clients were 128.407 times more likely to be HIV positive than the TB negative clients. Female were 1.272 times more likely to be HIV positive than the male. Married people were 5.304 time more likely to be HIV positive than the single clients. Staffs were 7.496 times more likely to be HIV positive than the student while the Maseno community members were 69.662 times more likely to be HIV positive than the students. Age group 40-44 was at the highest risk of being HIV positive with an odds ratio of 34.000 than age group 15-19. Results from marginal effect showed that out of the five key independent variables, only marital status did not predict if the client was HIV positive. It was recommended that in-depth analyses of HIV epidemics to be carried out in other counties to know major factors associated with HIV/AIDS.