| dc.description.abstract | Economic activities in Lake Victoria Basin such as agriculture, sh-
ing, mining and transportation depend's heavily on the climatic
conditions of the Lake and its Basin. Global climatic change caused
by Greenhouse Gas emission (GHG) has resulted in a disruptive and
erratic weather pattern for these economic activities. This unpre-
dictable weather variations is responsible for loss of life and destruc-
tion of property. The primary cause of this negative impact is lack
of a reliable information addressing climatic variation within the
region. The main objective of this project was to identify a suit-
able time series model that can be used in predicting, forecasting
and analyzing weather variations.The Box jenskin methodology is
used to build ARIMA model for rainfall and temperature. Data ob-
tained from the Kenya Meteorological Department's Kisumu, Lwak,
and Migori for the years 2007 to 2014 produced An ARIMA (2,0,1)
model for rainfall is using R package. Data for the years 2011 to
2013 were estimated using values from the years 2008 to 2010 and
the relationship showed a strong positive relationship indicating a
high accuracy level on predictability by the model. | en_US |
